Natural Gas News: Futures Rally on Arctic Blast Forecast and Bullish Inventory Report

Will Natural Gas Extend Its Breakout Rally?

Natural gas prices are pushing higher on Friday, with bullish traders looking to build on this week’s breakout above the key pivot level at $3.505. Upside momentum could strengthen further if prices breach yesterday’s high of $3.786, potentially setting up a test of the January 13 main top at $4.020.

Traders are closely watching technical indicators, with the short-term trend firmly bullish above $3.505. The intermediate trend is supported by the 50-day moving average at $3.166, while the long-term trend remains positive above the 200-day moving average at $2.733. As natural gas finishes a strong week, traders remain focused on weather developments and storage data for further direction.

At 17:27 GMT, Natural Gas Futures are trading $3.767, up $0.139 or +3.83%.

Cold Weather Forecasts Drive Demand Expectations

Natural gas futures have risen consistently this week, with the March contract gaining nearly 32.0 cents over the past four sessions. The primary driver behind this rally has been colder-than-expected weather forecasts. The latest 15-day U.S. weather model shows a significant drop in temperatures, reinforcing expectations for increased heating demand.

According to NatGasWeather, the upcoming week (February 13-19) will see Arctic air sweeping across much of the U.S., bringing subzero lows in some regions and keeping national demand high. However, the southern U.S. will remain relatively mild, with temperatures ranging from the 50s to 70s. Overall, the market expects strong natural gas consumption in the coming days.

Storage Report Shows a 100 Bcf Withdrawal

The latest EIA storage report revealed a 100 Bcf draw for the week ending February 7, coming in at the higher end of market expectations. This reduction brought total working gas in storage to 2,297 Bcf, which is 248 Bcf below year-ago levels and 67 Bcf under the five-year average of 2,364 Bcf.

Regionally, the Midwest saw the largest draw at 46 Bcf, followed by the East with a 39 Bcf decline. The South-Central region, however, only saw a modest 1 Bcf drop, with salt storage facilities actually adding 12 Bcf. While storage levels remain within historical norms, the below-average levels continue to provide fundamental support for prices.

Market Outlook: More Upside Ahead?

With strong technical support, colder weather, and a tightening storage picture, natural gas prices have room to move higher. If the rally clears $3.786, traders could target $4.020 in the near term. However, sustained upside will require continued cold weather and firm demand.

Short-term sentiment remains bullish, but traders should monitor any shifts in weather models and upcoming storage data for potential changes in momentum.

More Information in our Natural Gas Futures.