On Friday, February 14, progress toward a US XRP-spot ETF market leaped forward. The SEC acknowledged the 21Shares’ 19b-4 application, starting the clock on the review process for a second XRP-spot ETF. Friday’s acknowledgment and the SEC’s acceptance of Grayscale’s XRP-spot ETF application marked a potential shift in sentiment toward XRP demand.
ETF Store President Nate Geraci weighed in on the SEC’s decision, expressing surprise at the lack of discussion around the filing.ETF:
“Shocked more people aren’t talking about SEC accepting XRP ETF filing… They have open litigation w/ Ripple. Meanwhile, they just acknowledged filing of ETF holding asset in dispute (they easily could have rejected this filing). Enormous message IMO.”
Geraci referred to the SEC’s acknowledgment of Grayscale’s 19b-4 application, fueling speculation that the SEC may withdraw its appeal against the Programmatic Sales of XRP ruling in the Ripple case.
Investors are also waiting for SEC responses to 19b-4 applications from Bitwise, Canary Funds, and WisdomTree.
XRP demand could surge if the SEC withdraws its appeal and approves an XRP-spot ETF. Since the July 2023 Programmatic Sales of XRP ruling, Ripple has expanded its presence in the US market, elevating XRP’s profile.
Significantly, potential integration with SWIFT could impact XRP’s supply-demand trajectory. An XRP-spot ETF market could draw institutional money in search of cryptos with everyday utilization. According to reports, XRP has yet to be integrated into SWIFT’s infrastructure. However, integration could further boost institutional interest in the third-largest crypto by market cap.
On Friday, February 14, XRP soared 6.87%, following Thursday’s 3.54% gain, closing at $2.7377. XRP outperformed the broader market, which advanced by 1.47%, taking the total crypto market cap to $3.19 trillion.
XRP-spot ETF-related news and speculation about the SEC withdrawing its appeal drove XRP demand. However, XRP remains well below the January 16 high of $3.3999 and the 2018 record high of $3.5505. The absence of an SEC withdrawal has likely left investors cautious.
Key Price Scenarios:
Click here to find out why analysts believe XRP could skyrocket—or crash—based on the SEC’s decision.
Beyond XRP’s ETF developments, US economic indicators influenced BTC demand.
US retail sales slid by 0.9% month-on-month in January, reversing a 0.7% increase in December. A pullback in consumer spending may dampen demand-driven inflation, supporting a more dovish Fed rate path.
Friday’s retail sales report came after Thursday’s producer prices, which indicated a weaker demand environment. Producer prices, excluding Food, Energy, and Trade, rose 3.4% in January after increasing by 3.5% in December. Producers may lower prices in a weakening demand environment, passing cost savings on to customers.
The CME FedWatch Tool reflected expectations for a more dovish Fed rate path. The probability of the Fed keeping the Fed Funds Rate at 4.25% to 4.5% in June dropped from 38.7% (February 7) to 31.8% (February 14).
On February 14, investor sentiment toward the Fed rate path led to inflows into the US BTC-spot ETF market. According to Farside Investors:
Excluding iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), the US BTC-spot ETF market reported $48.3 million of total net inflows, potentially ending a four-day outflow streak.
Flow trends remain a key driver for BTC price action.
On February 14, BTC gained 0.93%, partially reversing Thursday’s 1.24% loss to close at $97,567. Significantly, BTC climbed to $98,929, its highest level since February 7, before retreating.
Beyond sentiment toward the Fed rate path and spot ETF flows, traders should monitor:
Possible Scenarios:
Investors should closely track the following key events:
These developments will likely influence institutional crypto adoption and broader crypto market trends.
Stay updated with our expert analysis of these critical events and their implications for crypto markets. Explore the full analysis here.
TEST 30 He has written extensively for a broader audience and his current focus is on developments relating to the financial markets including, but not limited to currencies, commodities, alternative asset classes, and global equities.