Gold (XAU) Silver (XAG) Daily Forecast: US-China Trade Tensions Boost Metals Demand

Market Overview

Gold (XAU/USD) continues its upward trajectory, trading near its all-time high of $2,865 as investors flock to safe-haven assets. The metal’s rally is largely fueled by concerns over a potential US-China trade war, with President Donald Trump’s latest 10% tariffs on Chinese imports exacerbating fears of economic instability. In response, China has introduced retaliatory tariffs on US goods, increasing uncertainty in global markets.

Adding to gold’s bullish momentum, US Treasury yields have dropped to their lowest level since mid-December, making the non-yielding asset more attractive. Meanwhile, expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates twice in 2025 have pushed the US Dollar to a one-week low, further boosting demand for gold.

Despite these tailwinds, a modest recovery in US equities and a slightly stronger US Dollar have limited additional gains in gold. Technical indicators suggest that the metal may be overbought in the short term, prompting some caution among traders. However, analysts note that any dip in gold prices could present a buying opportunity, as long as economic uncertainty and dovish Fed policies persist.

Silver Strengthens on Safe-Haven Demand

Silver (XAG/USD) is holding firm at $32.25, following an intraday high of $32.42. The metal has benefited from declining US Treasury yields and growing expectations of Fed rate cuts, which make non-yielding assets like silver more appealing.

Concerns over global trade instability have also fueled silver’s safe-haven demand. However, similar to gold, silver’s gains are facing resistance due to a slight recovery in the US Dollar and strength in equity markets.

Despite this, silver remains on a bullish path, with analysts forecasting further upside if market uncertainty persists.

Market Focus Shifts to US Economic Data

Investors are closely watching upcoming US employment reports, particularly Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data, for further clarity on the Fed’s monetary policy stance.

Additionally, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims data on Thursday will provide further insight into the labor market. A weaker-than-expected report could reinforce the case for further rate cuts, potentially adding more fuel to gold and silver’s rally.

Short-Term Forecast

Gold remains bullish near $2,865, but overbought conditions may limit upside. A break above $2,882 could push prices higher, while support at $2,840 must hold to prevent deeper declines.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $2,865.96, down 0.04%, showing slight hesitation near its pivot point at $2,861.73. Despite this, the broader trend remains bullish, with prices holding within an upward channel. Immediate resistance is seen at $2,882.44, followed by $2,902.59, where sellers may step in.

On the downside, support at $2,840.12 is key—if breached, it could accelerate declines toward $2,812.95. The 50-day EMA at $2,832.23 reinforces this support, while the 200-day EMA at $2,767.45 signals a strong long-term uptrend.

Traders remain cautious, watching for a break above $2,860 to confirm continued upside momentum. A dip below this level, however, could spark sharper selling.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver (XAG/USD) is trading at $32.25, down 0.18%, as it struggles below the $32.84 pivot point. The metal has shown resilience, but failure to reclaim this level keeps the short-term outlook cautious. Immediate resistance sits at $32.84, with a stronger barrier at $33.11. A sustained break above these levels could open the door for further gains.

On the downside, support is holding at $31.94, followed by $31.58. The 50-day EMA at $31.81 provides a critical short-term floor, while the 200-day EMA at $30.99 signals broader bullish momentum. A bearish breakout from the upward trendline suggests caution, and failure to push above $32.84 could drive selling pressure.